The worst of the property slump is over, according to DTZ’s Money into Property report. The adviser forecasts that global invested stock will grow by 5% in 2010, with the UK seeing an even higher increase of 8% as capital values continue their recovery.
The worst of the property slump is over, according to DTZ’s Money into Property report. The adviser forecasts that global invested stock will grow by 5% in 2010, with the UK seeing an even higher increase of 8% as capital values continue their recovery.
However, the biggest growth story, the adviser claims, comes from China. DTZ forecasts that China will become the second largest real estate market globally by the end of 2011 - ranking only behind the US and overtaking Japan and the UK. This is due to a surge in the volume of development and rising capital values, and represents a meteoric rise for the country given that it did not even feature in the global top five in 2007.
Hans Vrensen, Global Head of Research at DTZ, comments: '2009 was a tough year for real estate markets worldwide and saw the value of global invested stock decline by 6%. However, the global real estate market is over the worst and we expect to see a return to growth in invested stock value this year, in line with the consensus macro-economic forecasts for a sustainable economic recovery worldwide.'
Based on its forecasts, DTZ recommends that investors become pro-active buyers again. It identifies 151 out of 172 markets, or 90%, across the globe as offering fair value in 2010. This is in contrast to last year, where only one market - the London City office market - was identified as offering fair value.
Of the 151 markets DTZ identifies as offering investors buying opportunities in 2010, eight are in the UK, 70 are in Continental Europe, 32 are in the US, and 41 are in Asia Pacific.
Tony McGough, Global Head of Forecasting & Strategy Research at DTZ, comments: 'What a difference a year makes.This time last year we recommended investors to wait on the sidelines as almost all commercial property markets worldwide were traded at prices above their fair value. This year, following a marked repricing of the market, our research shows that there has seldom been a better time to invest in prime commercial real estate.'
According to DTZ, the prime London City office market is now considered to be the only ‘hot’ investment location in the UK. Based on DTZ’s fair value classification, this means that investors can expect excess returns from this market3. Other prime office markets in London’s West End, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Newcastle and Nottingham are classified as 'warm' investment locations where investors can expect 'adequate returns.'


