Smart investors are exploiting the time of uncertainty in the run-up to the EU referendum in June to do great deals, delegates heard at the Spring Conference organised by the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) Europe in London on Thursday, writes PropertyEU correspondent Nicol Dynes.
‘What is a time of risk to the cautious is a buying opportunity for the brave,’ said Natasha Hannoun, associate director at Integrated Alternative Finance. ‘From our perspective the UK is more attractive than ever at the moment, as those who move quickly have less competition and can exploit great opportunities in this time of uncertainty’.
Transaction volumes have dropped in the first quarter of the year, as many investors have opted for a wait-and-see attitude before the vote that will determine whether the UK leaves or remains in the European Union.
Expectations are that the second quarter will also be quieter, but that activity will quickly resume after the referendum. ‘There could well be nine months’ worth of transactions done in the last six months of the year,’ says Chris Holmes, European Director and Head of UK Debt Advisory at JLL.
Fall in the pound looms
If the 'remain' vote wins, business as usual will resume with a collective sigh of relief in many quarters. But even if the Brexit camp wins, economists are forecasting an immediate fall in the value of the pound which could present opportunities for foreign buyers.
Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, experts believe foreign capital will continue to flow into the UK. ‘I think there will definitely be more capital coming this year,’ said Mark Evans, head of EMEA Equity Placement at CBRE. ‘If you look at it globally, there are many investors who are only just discovering real estate and who will come looking for stable safe returns. Many of these investors have long, 20 to 30 year horizons, and besides, outside of Europe, especially in Asia, Brexit does not seem such a big deal.'
The UK now has a much more diversified investor base, experts said: investors come from all over the world and vary from high net worth individuals to pension funds to sovereign wealth funds, deploying capital with different interests, goals and time-frames.
‘This diversity is a huge positive for the UK,’ said Holmes. ‘From a global perspective, the UK with its rule of law, tolerant society and language and geographical advantages, will remain a good place to invest whatever happens on June 23. The outlook is extremely good.’
